## Admission requirements

Prerequisites are basic probability theory (including laws of large numbers, central limit theorem) and statistics (maximum likelihood, least squares). Knowledge of machine learning or more advanced probability/statistics may be useful but is not essential. In particular, all stochastic process/martingale theory that is needed will be developed from scratch.

## Description

A large fraction (some claim > 1/2) of published research in top journals in applied sciences such as medicine and psychology is irreproduceable. In light of this 'replicability crisis', classical statistical methods, most notably testing based on p-values, have recently come under intense scrutiny. Indeed, p-value based tests but also other methods like confidence intervals and Bayesian methods have mostly been developed in the 1930s - and they are not really suitable at all for many 21st century applications of statistics. Most importantly, they do not deal well with situations in which new data can keep coming in. For example, based on the results of existing trials, one decides to do a new study of the same medication in a new hospital; or: whenever you type in new search terms, google can adjust the model that decides what advertisements to show to you.

In this class we first review the classical approaches to statistical testing, estimation and uncertainty quantification (confidence) and discuss what each of them can and cannot achieve. These include Fisherian testing, Neyman-Pearson testing, Jeffreys-Bayesian (all from the 1930s), sequential testing (1940s) and pure likelihood-based (1960s) approaches. From the confidence perspective, it includes classical (Neyman-Pearson) confidence intervals and Bayesian posteriors. For each of these we treat the mathematical results underlying them (such as complete class theorems and the 'law of likelihood') and we give examples of common settings in which they are mis-used. All these approaches, while quite different and achieving different goals, have difficulties in the modern age, in which "optional continuation" is the rule rather than the exception. We will also treat approaches from the 1980s and 1990s based on data-compression ideas.

We will then treat the one approach which seems more suitable for the modern context: the always-valid-confidence sets of Robbins, Darling and Lai (late 1960s), which has its roots in sequential testing (Wald, 1940s). The always-valid-approach has recently been re-invigorated and extended. The mathematics behind it involves martingale-based techniques such as Doob's optional stopping theorem, advanced concentration inequalities such as a finite-time law of the iterated logarithm and information-theoretic concepts such as the relative entropy.

The central organizing principle in our treatment is the concept of likelihood and its generalization, nonnegative supermartingales.

## Course Objectives

Understand the notions of likelihood and its application in the classical statistical paradigms (frequentist, Bayesian, sequential)

Understand the notion of nonnegative test martingale and its application in always-valid testing and estimation

Understand the powers and limitations of existing statistical methods

## Timetable

You will find the timetables for all courses and degree programmes of Leiden University in the tool MyTimetable (login). Any teaching activities that you have sucessfully registered for in MyStudyMap will automatically be displayed in MyTimeTable. Any timetables that you add manually, will be saved and automatically displayed the next time you sign in.

MyTimetable allows you to integrate your timetable with your calendar apps such as Outlook, Google Calendar, Apple Calendar and other calendar apps on your smartphone. Any timetable changes will be automatically synced with your calendar. If you wish, you can also receive an email notification of the change. You can turn notifications on in ‘Settings’ (after login).

For more information, watch the video or go the the 'help-page' in MyTimetable. Please note: Joint Degree students Leiden/Delft have to merge their two different timetables into one. This video explains how to do this.

## Mode of instruction

Weekly lectures. Bi-weekly exercise sessions in which homework of type (a) is discussed.

Homework consisting of (a) math exercises and (b) a project involving doing a few experiments with an R package.

## Assessment method

The final grade consists of homework (40%) and a written (retake) exam (60%). To pass the course, the grade for the (retake) exam should be at least 5 and the (unrounded) weighted average of the two partial grades at least 5.5. No minimum grade is required for the homework in order to take the exam or to pass the course. The homework counts as a practical and there is no retake for it; it consists of at least 5 written assignments, of which the lowest grade is dropped, as well as a small programming assignment.

## Reading list

Parts of

R. Royall, Statistical Evidence: a likelihood paradigm ( Chapman & Hall/CRC, 1999)

P. Grünwald, the Minimum Description Length Principle (MIT Press, 2007, freely available on internet)

handouts that will be made available during the lectures

## Registration

From the academic year 2022-2023 on every student has to register for courses with the new enrollment tool MyStudyMap. There are two registration periods per year: registration for the fall semester opens in July and registration for the spring semester opens in December. Please see this page for more information.

Please note that it is compulsory to both preregister and confirm your participation for every exam and retake. Not being registered for a course means that you are not allowed to participate in the final exam of the course. Confirming your exam participation is possible until ten days before the exam.

Extensive FAQ's on MyStudymap can be found here.

## Contact

By email: pdg@cwi.nl

## Remarks

The course is present on brightspace and we will use it heavily.